Tag Archives: Software measurement

To estimate or not to estimate? Not the right question…

Over the past few years I’ve seen an increase in articles and posts about whether or not to do estimation (of cost, schedule and effort) for software development projects. This is especially true when agile/iterative methods are used to develop software for which requirements are not readily known in advance.  There are actual “movements” set up to prove that estimating in and of itself is bad for software development.  At the same time, I’ve worked done more and more work for clients related to software benchmarking (to find best-in-class methods, tools, and combinations to develop software) and estimation (including price-to-win estimating.)  I’m now convinced that “To estimate or not to estimate?” is simply the wrong question – or at least a premature question for many companies.

Estimation is often viewed as fundamental to software development (and any other development projects or programs) as are ingredients to cooking or oxygen to life.  While we might wish to discard or discredit the practice of estimation as an inconvenience and even the reason for software “failures” –(Sidenote:  The Standish group’s annual CHAOS reports cite lack of “on-time” and “on-budget” software delivery as rationale for declaring project failure; both of which would disappear as factors if estimating was eliminated) – the truth is that C-level executives need a level of confidence (based on estimates) to bound their investment in new initiatives, no matter how much faith or confidence the executives have in the development teams’ ability to deliver.  In my humble opinion, project managers MUST  develop skills to do solid, reliable project estimates if they are to survive (and thrive.)  But this is where things often fall apart – estimation is not seen as a discipline based on solid data (in part, because some organizations do estimating haphazardly based on bad data, poor models, flawed assumptions, premature input values taken as fact, among other factors.)

This does not include those organizations where the mere notion of projects (being a temporary endeavor intended to deliver an identified product, outcome, or service such as a piece of software) is like a foreign language.  When I teach courses according to the Project Management Institute’s Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK(R)), it’s not uncommon to find IT pros who profess that project management is not needed because their work is bounded solely by calendar months and the number of full-time-staffers.  The idea that work should be managed towards a specified outcome (with goals, objectives, timelines, milestones, deliverables and a formal end) just doesn’t fit into their paradigm, even for those involved in developing advanced technology solutions.  I’m excluding these companies because projects (and estimating cost and schedule) are actually beyond their comprehension, as is productivity, project comparisons or process improvement.

Given the premise that “to estimate or not to estimate” is the wrong (or at least a premature) question – then what are the right ones?  Here’s a short list:

  • If we do an estimate, do we know what are the correct input variables (and values) we should use?  (i.e., Some idea of scope, non-functional requirements, constraints, goals, project environment, etc.)  Garbage in equals garbage out.
  • When estimating, do we have access to correct and appropriate historical data on which to rely? (i.e., does the historical completed project information accurately depict what actually happened on the project? Often up to 40% of true project work effort is not recorded – or it is recorded inconsistently.)  Incomplete or incorrect historical data make for poor comparisons, and even worse estimates.
  • Are the estimating models we propose, appropriate for the industry and application?  (i.e., in construction, it would be folly to use a home building model for a hospital construction or bridge construction project, so too with software.)  Every model, no matter how advanced, needs to be calibrated for the organization using it.
  • Do we know enough about the object of estimation? (i.e., if it is simply an idea about an outcome without any idea of component programs or projects, a “guess”timate or rough-order-of-magnitude may be the only possibility until more data are known.)
  • Are the estimating exercise/practices paid “lip service” by management? (i.e., does management summarily cut every estimate in half, or dictate due dates that override those of professional estimators?)
  • Does the organization take (software) measurement seriously?  (i.e., how are project measures and metrics collected – if adhoc, inconsistent, without formal processes or procedures to validate the quality of project data, then estimating will likely be equally inconsistent)

These are just a few of the important questions that need to be addressed – before we attempt to estimate and rely on the results of the practice.   When estimating is done without proper planning, discipline and consistency, the results will be unreliable and even worse, downright wrong.

In IT as in life, if you’re going to invest in an endeavor (such as estimating), take the time to do it right the first time, or don’t bother doing it at all.  And that, really answers the question of  “to estimate or not to estimate.”

What other questions are critical to ask?  What do YOU think?


Function Points (Software Size) come of Age: Mature, Stable, and Relevant

It is with pride and honor to share with you news about the upcoming Sept 13-15, 2017 celebratory (and educational) conference: ISMA14 (International Software Measurement and Analysis) – and its happening in just 4 weeks in Cleveland, OH, USA!

It’s the 30th anniversary of the International Function Point Users Group (IFPUG) – a not-for-profit user group I’ve been a part of for over 25 years.

We’re also celebrating 2017 as the International Year of Software Measurement (#IYSM).  It’s a great year for YOU to get involved (or more involved) and gain the benefits of measurement for software and systems projects!

As the Director of Communications and Marketing for IFPUG, I am excited that IFPUG is now mature (age 30!) and at the same time venturing in new directions with non-functional sizing (SNAP.)  We have much to celebrate, AND we also have more work to do (to publicize how Function Points and SNAP points provide objective measures of software size!)

The time is now!

No longer does your organization need to “fumble around in the dark” to find standard, reliable and objective software sizing measures.  Certainly there is an abundance of available units of measure (story points, use case points, source lines of code, hybrid measures, etc.) — BUT, only Function Points are supported by  ISO/IEC world standards and provide consistent, objective and technologically independent assessments of software size based on “user” requirements.  (Soon, the Software Non-functional Assessment Process – SNAP points for non-functional size will also become an international standard.)

Isn’t it time that your company adopts function points as a universal standard for software size?  YOUR timing is perfect because in less than 5 weeks, International Software Measurement and Analysis (#ISMA14) will be in Cleveland and you will have the opportunity to learn from industry experts in an intimate (less than 200 people) setting. (p.s., I’m one of the main conference speakers so you’ll know at least 1 person there!)

FUNCTION POINT proof is “in the pUDDING” (so to speak)…

We have an English proverb “the proof is the pudding”

The modern version of “The proof is in the pudding.” Implies that there is a lot of evidence that I will not go through at this moment and you should take my word for it, or you could go through all of the evidence yourself. Source:  http://tinyurl.com/5uc7eq3 

I can espouse the benefits of function points, as can IFPUG insiders and supporters such as the world-respected author/guru Capers Jones (whose 17 published books use Function Points as a universal software sizing measure). But, when the mainstream media features articles on Function Points – it’s a call to action for senior executives and IT professionals to take note! Here’s a recent example: (click on the image to read the full story!)

Need help selling your boss on the benefits?

I’ve written up the top 10 reasons to attend ISMA14 with us- won’t you join me (and a ton of other measurement professionals) in Cleveland on Sep 13?

Carol Dekkers, CFPS (Fellow), AEC, PMP, P.Eng.
President, Quality Plus Technologies, Inc.
IFPUG Director of Communications and Marketing


QSM (Quantitative Software Management) 2014 Research Almanac Published this week!

Over the years I’ve been privileged to have articles included in compendiums with industry thought leaders whose work I’ve admired.  This week, I had another proud moment as my article was featured in the QSM Software Almanac: 2014 Research Edition along with a veritable who’s who of QSM.

This is the first almanac produced by QSM, Inc. since 2006, and it features 200+ pages of relevant research-based articles garnered from the SLIM(R) database of over 10,000 completed and validated software projects.

Download your FREE copy of the 2014 Almanac by clicking this link or the image below.


Latest installment of Ask Carol: With Software Sizing, If You Don’t Know the What, You Can’t Estimate the How

One of the biggest (and not so obvious) reasons that software estimation goes awry is that amateur estimators don’t always realize how important it is to figure out the “object of estimation” – that is, what it is that we want to estimate. 

I’ve addressed this issue on several occasions – through a set of 4 blog posts called “First see the elephant in the room (the what you are estimating…)”

This week, I did a blog post for QSM, Inc. on the same topic.  Let me know what you think.

21 if you dont know the whathttp://www.qsm.com/blog/2014/ask-carol-software-sizing-if-you-dont-know-what-you-cant-estimate-how

What’s the Point of Estimating?

Here’s the latest installment of my QSM Ask Carol blog:

Point of estimating

“What’s the Point of (Early) Estimating?”  … click on the image or the title here to read the full blog post.


Latest installment of “Ask Carol: Sizing Alternatives when Cost is an Issue”

Happy new year 2014!

I present you with the latest installment of the Software Professional’s advice column I pen for QSM, Inc. called “Dear Carol” (click here also for the direct link)

Ask carol - Sizing alternatives when cost is an issue

Enjoy!  Comments are always appreciated and welcome. What do you think of this post?


Latest installment of Ask Carol: No matter What… in Project Management, Size Matters

Just wanted to share with you my latest installment on the QSM website blog – My Dear Carol advice column.  Enjoy!

Ask Carol - size matters

Here is the link to the rest of the article:  http://www.qsm.com/blog/2013/ask-carol-no-matter-what-project-management-size-matters

Fundamentals of Software Metrics in Two Minutes or Less


Fundamentals of SW Metrics in two minutes or lessTo read more click on the link:

What Can Goldilocks Teach about Software Estimating?




Estimating Before Requirements with Function Points and Other Metrics… Webinar Replay

On June 7, 2012, I conducted an hour-long webinar on “Estimating Before Requirements with Function Points and Other Metrics” before a worldwide audience spanning a myriad of software development specialties/industries and across many countries.

In the event that you missed the live webinar or would like to listen/view the replay, it is available (at no charge) at http://www.qsm.com/Webinars/Estimating-before-Requirements

At the end of the webinar, I offered to send attendees several papers (also downloadable from this link) as well as a Scope Management primer.  If you are interested, please send an email to me at: dekkers (at) qualityplustech (dot) com.

Let me know what you think of the concepts and the webinar!